Predict the jar draw
Exact materials
A clear jar and 10 large counters in two colors.
Prep time: under 2 minutes.
Step-by-step setup
Put 8 red counters and 2 blue counters in the jar and let the child inspect the mix. Ask which color is more likely to be drawn. Without looking, draw one counter, name the result, replace it and shake the jar. Repeat five times.
Say: “Which color is more likely? Let’s draw one and see!”
Success criteria
Before at least 4 of 5 draws, points to or names the more common color as more likely. Notices that the less common color can still be drawn.
Progression
One color only (certain) → 9/1 mix → 8/2 mix → 6/4 mix → equal 5/5 mix → child changes the mix to make one color more likely.
Linked skills and measures
Skill: Compares likelihood from visible quantities (Early Probability)
Measure: Selects the visibly more likely outcome
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Rigorous by design
Every activity is written to a specification: what to set out, exactly what to do, what success looks like and how to make it harder. Each one links to the skills it builds and the observable measures that track them.